The world has become a giant inter tangled mess. The Mayans, some ages ago, had predicted that the world will end in 2012. By God's grace, I hope, the Mayans are wrong. However, the current custodians of dear earth - you, me, and our fellow earthlings - are not making things easy.
Every single day, we are living under the threat of war. Every single day, we are living under the threat of a collapsed world economic system.
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| The World Crisis 2012 |
Let us have a look at the United States of America. In 2008, Obama said - "Yes, We Can." He held a promise to transform America. Surprisingly, he was also awarded the Noble Peace Prize in 2009.
And as Obama comes towards the end of his tenor in 2012, the world is anything but a peaceful place. Obama did not remain true to the promise he showed 5 years back.
Obama was served a tough hand at the beginning of his Presidency. He exhausted a major part of his energy and resources in dealing with the most terrible recession in the last 80 years. The wars in Iraq, and Afghanistan, the war on terror in sovereign Pakistan, and military missions in Libya did not help the cause.
Afghanistan is still a dangerous place. It looks like Taliban can be back in Afghanistan, this time as official rulers, with the blessings of the USA.
Some elements in the US Senate also wants Baluchistan to be a separate nation. And who does America think will rule them? Will it be the Pakistan Taliban? Pakistan, too, is offended by this attack on their sovereignty.
As if the pressure of war was not sufficient, the world is also cornered by an boiling economic crisis. Greece is on the verge of a collapse. Greece has been granted loans exceeding 100 Billion USD. Such numbers are mind numbing.
The Euro Zone also risks being disintegrated. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, said that the existence of the Euro Zone is important to avoid the risk of war.
Merkel said, “Nobody should believe that another half century of peace in Europe is a given - it’s not. So I say again: if the Euro collapses, Europe collapses. That can’t happen.”
These comments paint a grime picture of the future in Europe.
Hungary's debt ratings have been cut to "Junk". Spain, Italy and Ireland owe foreign debt which runs into Trillions of Dollars. Have a look at this chart to understand more details.
The worst part is that the major economies - the USA, the UK, France, Germany, along with the relatively smaller but significant European nations - have lent to each other, thereby creating a web. A collapse of any of these economies will trigger a domino effect and cause an unbearable strain on the world economy.
Civil wars were the order of the day on 2011. Across Africa - from Libya to Egypt - ordinary people have overthrown leaders who had ruled their countries for decades.
The situation for Russia is slightly similar. Vladimir Putin, who has been the President for 8 years, and the current Prime Minister for 4 years, is once standing for the Presidential elections in March 2012. People are not happy with this action from Putin.
The victory of his party in the state Duma elections resulted in several protests in Russia. In my opinion, Putin will come back to power in 2012. If this triggers another round of protests in Russia, it may snow ball into a conflict between the rulers and the ordinary citizens.
And any turmoil in Russia will have a far reaching impact in Eastern and Western Europe.
In this big economical and political maze, war is once again raising its dirty head. The tensions are rising in the Middle East.
The oil rich Middle East countries provide fodder for the energy hungry nations of the world. From America to Japan, from India to the UK, most nations rely of the oil from the Middle East to keep their world going.
Iran has been ambitiously trying to explore nuclear energy. Maybe it estimates that it needs to have the wherewithal for survival once it runs out of oil. Maybe it is trying to build a deterrent against the super powers who can behave like vultures for its oil.
Their public position has been that the nuclear know how is for developing nuclear energy. This has not gone down well with America and Israel, and their buddies.
In the last few years, 4 of Iran's nuclear scientists have been killed. They have been assassinated. The fingers of suspicion are pointed towards Israel.
Last week, some anti-Israel supporters got together and triggered blasts in Delhi, India and Bangkok, Thailand. A similar bomb attack was foiled in Tbilisi, Georgia. The perpetrators of the crime are not known. However, Israel has pointed fingers towards Iran.
This blame game can blow up into a war. If Israel looses its cool and bombs Iran, and Iran retaliates, it will be pure mayhem.
World politics is looking like a fight between some kids, where nations are being asked to take sides. The USA has been breathing down India's neck to cut all ties with Iran. India is not showing the inclination to do so, putting its national interests first.
Japan and China do not want Iran to go to war. They are dependent on its oil. The UK, too, has told Israel to avoid war. America says that war is not the only option currently. Well, even if it's one of the options, it still spells doom.
Iran too has been flexing its military muscle. It threatens to close the Hormuz Strait, the narrow piece of sea through which 20% of the world's oil makes its way to the nations across the world. And just yesterday, Iran sent a warship into the Mediterranean.
If Israel puts its prestige first, only God can save us from a war. A war which will send the price of crude oil through the roof. A war which will create an unbearable pressure on the already stretched world economy. A war where nations would have to takes sides and prove their allegiance.
Well, the last thing that we want today is a war.
History teaches us many lessons. And in these difficult and dangerous times, it would be important to recollect the reason for start of World War 1. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, by a Yugoslav nationalist triggered the World War 1.
A small match stick can light a fireball. And we can all hope that the leaders of our great nations possesses a calm head to douse the match stick.
After all, we can live in peace. And their is no greater victory than peace.
A war is a dark blot in the annals of history. Peace is an eraser which can prevent the creation of these dark blots.
On a side note, at the end of 2012, when we welcome the new year 2013, we can take the pride that we have proved the Mayan's wrong.
